Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 14 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 14 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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Week 13 Record

Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 10-3 (+6.7 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1

Year-to-Date Record

Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 94-73-2 (+13.9 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 34-26

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman’s Week 14 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 13 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Dec. 7, at 11:30 pm ET.

Home Team
Road Team
Consensus Line
Freedman Line
Projected Edge

LAR
LV
6.5
6
-0.5

BUF
NYJ
-9.5
-11.25
-1.75

DET
MIN
-2.5
0
2.5

NYG
PHI
7
6.5
-0.5

CIN
CLE
-6
-5
1

DAL
HOU
-16.5
-16.5
0

PIT
BAL
-2.5
-1.5
1

TEN
JAX
-4
-3.75
0.25

DEN
KC
9.5
7.25
-2.25

SEA
CAR
-3.5
-7
-3.5

SF
TB
-3.5
-2.75
0.75

LAC
MIA
3
1.25
-1.75

ARI
NE
1.5
0.75
-0.75

Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.

Bills -9.5 vs. Jets
Broncos +9.5 vs. Chiefs
Seahawks -3.5 vs. Panthers

Freedman’s Week 14 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Check out our Jets at Bills matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Highmark Stadium
TV: CBS

Jets at Bills: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 7.

Spread: Bills -9.5
Betting Percentages: Bills – 38% bets, 79% money

Jets at Bills: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Jets ATS: 7-5 (11.7% ROI)
Bills ATS: 5-6-1 (-13.2% ROI)

Jets at Bills: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Jets Offense vs. Bills Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.038
25
-0.021
9
-16

Total SR
40.6%
29
45.3%
21
-8

Total DVOA
-2.9%
19
-13.0%
4
-15

Dropback EPA
-0.047
28
0.025
10
-18

Dropback SR
42.2%
29
46.9%
21
-8

Pass DVOA
2.8%
23
-6.7%
7
-16

Adj. Sack Rate
6.4%
12
7.3%
14
2

Rush EPA
-0.021
10
-0.113
6
-4

Rush SR
37.8%
26
42.0%
18
-8

Rush DVOA
-0.6%
12
-22.0%
3
-9

Adj. Line Yards
4.20
22
3.71
3
-19

Yards per Play
5.3
19
5.2
10
-9

Points per Game
21
18
17.4
4
-14

Bills Offense vs. Jets Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.123
3
-0.05
7
4

Total SR
49.8%
1
42.7%
8
7

Total DVOA
16.1%
4
-12.5%
5
1

Dropback EPA
0.229
2
-0.043
6
4

Dropback SR
53.0%
3
43.3%
7
4

Pass DVOA
33.9%
4
-12.7%
5
1

Adj. Sack Rate
5.7%
6
8.0%
9
3

Rush EPA
-0.089
23
-0.060
18
-5

Rush SR
43.3%
8
41.6%
16
8

Rush DVOA
-4.0%
17
-12.3%
11
-6

Adj. Line Yards
4.25
20
4.08
8
-12

Yards per Play
6.2
3
4.8
2
-1

Points per Game
27.8
3
18.6
6
3

Jets at Bills: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 208 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Mike White

Metric
Output
Rank

ATS Value vs. Avg.
-2.4
42

Career: Mike White

AY/A: 6.2
QB Elo per Game: 5.6

2022: Josh Allen

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.148
5

AY/A
7.7
8

QBR
75.1
3

ATS Value vs. Avg.
4.2
2

Career: Josh Allen

AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: 66.8

Key Takeaway: Anything Less Than -10 Is Not Enough

When the Jets hosted the Bills in Week 9, the Bills were -10.5. Yeah, they suffered a 20-17 loss, and the Jets are better with Mike White at quarterback than Zach Wilson, but the Bills are now at Highmark Stadium, where they have a significant home-field advantage — and yet they’re only -9.5?

That doesn’t add up, especially since the Bills are playing with three extra days of rest and the Jets are on a 3-of-4 away streak.

The difference between these two teams is real. In the Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, the Bills have a +7.91 rating. The Jets, -2.09.

And I know that we’ve seen back-to-back 300-yard passing performances out of White. He’s unquestionably an upgrade on Wilson. But let’s not pretend that we know for sure that he’s actually a good quarterback. He probably isn’t. Just last year in Week 9 he had an abysmal game against the Bills (54.6% completion rate, 1.6 AY/A, 4 interceptions). He’s almost certainly better than the typical third-string quarterback. But he’s yet to prove himself to be a starter-caliber player.

Anything less than -10 offers value on the Bills.

Best Line: Bills -9 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Bills -9.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Bills -11.25

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Check out our Chiefs at Broncos matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: CBS

Chiefs at Broncos: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 7.

Spread: Broncos +9.5
Betting Percentages: Broncos – 31% bets, 64% money

Chiefs at Broncos: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Chiefs ATS: 4-8 (-36.1% ROI)
Broncos ATS: 4-8 (-36.4% ROI)

Kansas City Chiefs: Notable Trend

QB Patrick Mahomes: 11-16-1 ATS (12.7% ROI for faders) as favorite of more than -7

Denver Broncos: Notable Trend

QB Russell Wilson: 30-15-2 ATS (28.7% ROI) as underdog
QB Russell Wilson: 5-0 ATS (90.0% ROI) as underdog of more than +7

Chiefs at Broncos: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Chiefs Offense vs. Broncos Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.198
1
-0.081
4
3

Total SR
49.8%
1
40.6%
2
1

Total DVOA
24.9%
1
-10.6%
7
6

Dropback EPA
0.303
1
-0.093
3
2

Dropback SR
53.4%
2
41.1%
1
-1

Pass DVOA
41.2%
2
-14.1%
4
2

Adj. Sack Rate
4.9%
4
7.3%
15
11

Rush EPA
-0.030
11
-0.061
17
6

Rush SR
41.9%
13
39.7%
11
-2

Rush DVOA
-0.3%
11
-6.1%
17
6

Adj. Line Yards
4.69
6
4.67
25
19

Yards per Play
6.5
1
4.8
2
1

Points per Game
29.2
1
17
2
1

Broncos Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.081
28
0.041
22
-6

Total SR
38.9%
30
45.5%
23
-7

Total DVOA
-16.1%
28
7.0%
25
-3

Dropback EPA
-0.019
24
0.097
25
1

Dropback SR
40.0%
30
47.3%
23
-7

Pass DVOA
-1.9%
25
13.2%
26
1

Adj. Sack Rate
8.7%
24
9.0%
5
-19

Rush EPA
-0.188
30
-0.069
14
-16

Rush SR
37.0%
28
42.1%
19
-9

Rush DVOA
-18.4%
28
-2.9%
18
-10

Adj. Line Yards
4.28
19
4.70
26
7

Yards per Play
5
25
5.4
13
-12

Points per Game
13.8
32
22.5
15
-17

Chiefs at Broncos: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 208 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Patrick Mahomes

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.188
2

AY/A
8.6
3

QBR
78.5
1

ATS Value vs. Avg.
5.6
1

Career: Patrick Mahomes

AY/A: 8.7
QB Elo per Game: 122.0

2022: Russell Wilson

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.042
28

AY/A
7
13

QBR
35
28

ATS Value vs. Avg.
-1.9
40

Career: Russell Wilson

AY/A: 8.1
QB Elo per Game: 31.8

Key Takeaway: Where’s the On-Field Edge for the Chiefs?

Betting on the Broncos is disgusting. No denying that. But I’m backing a big divisional dog at home, where the elevation provides a true edge, and I like that general scenario. And as cringy as Broncos QB Russell Wilson has been this season — both on and off the field — he’s still 4-2 ATS as an underdog.

And where exactly do the Chiefs have an on-field edge?

They’re unquestionably the better team. And I’m probably higher on the Chiefs than most people are: I still have them as the No. 1 team in my power ratings. I tend to be too high on the Chiefs each week — and now I see value on the Broncos. That’s saying something.

On offense, the Chiefs have no significant edge over the Broncos defense, which is an elite unit.

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge

Dropback EPA
0.303
1
-0.093
3
2

Dropback SR
0.534
2
0.411
1
-1

Pass DVOA
0.412
2
-0.141
4
2

Rush EPA
-0.03
11
-0.061
17
6

Rush SR
0.419
13
0.397
11
-2

Rush DVOA
-0.003
11
-0.061
17
6

The Broncos defense is unlikely to shut down the Chiefs offense — but it might be able to slow down QB Patrick Mahomes, and with a spread this large (and a total of just 44 points) that might be enough, especially since the Broncos offense isn’t at a massive disadvantage against the Chiefs defense.

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge

Dropback EPA
-0.019
24
0.097
25
1

Dropback SR
0.4
30
0.473
23
-7

Pass DVOA
-0.019
25
0.132
26
1

Rush EPA
-0.188
30
-0.069
14
-16

Rush SR
0.37
28
0.421
19
-9

Rush DVOA
-0.184
28
-0.029
18
-10

The Broncos will be challenged in the running game, but what does that matter? They’re nearly double-digit dogs: They’re going to be forced to throw the ball more, and the Chiefs have a below-average pass defense.

I doubt that the Broncos win, but the Chiefs throughout the years have displayed a propensity for winning outright but not covering large spreads. I think that’s what happens here.

Anything more than +7 is too much for the Broncos at home.

Best Line: Broncos +9.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Broncos +9.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Broncos +7.25

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Check out our Panthers at Seahawks matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: Lumen Field
TV: FOX

Panthers at Seahawks: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 7.

Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Betting Percentages: Panthers – 46% bets, 91% money

Panthers at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Panthers ATS: 6-6 (-3.8% ROI)
Seahawks ATS: 6-6 (-4.8% ROI)

Seattle Seahawks: Notable Trends

QB Geno Smith: 9-6 ATS (15.3% ROI) with Seahawks
QB Geno Smith: 5-2 ATS (37.7% ROI) at home with Seahawks
HC Pete Carroll: 57-41-3 ATS (13.2% ROI) at home

Panthers at Seahawks: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Panthers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
-0.094
29
0.054
23
-6

Total SR
38.1%
32
42.9%
9
-23

Total DVOA
-17.5%
30
4.4%
20
-10

Dropback EPA
-0.156
31
0.107
26
-5

Dropback SR
35.7%
32
45.7%
14
-18

Pass DVOA
-23.0%
30
6.9%
18
-12

Adj. Sack Rate
7.7%
18
7.8%
11
-7

Rush EPA
-0.016
9
-0.020
23
14

Rush SR
41.2%
17
38.9%
8
-9

Rush DVOA
-4.2%
18
1.6%
24
6

Adj. Line Yards
4.59
8
4.58
21
13

Yards per Play
5.2
20
5.7
20
0

Points per Game
19.2
25
25.3
28
3

Seahawks Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge

EPA per Play
0.075
6
-0.011
11
5

Total SR
47.6%
5
44.1%
13
8

Total DVOA
9.6%
8
4.5%
21
13

Dropback EPA
0.151
6
0.027
11
5

Dropback SR
54.1%
1
45.0%
11
10

Pass DVOA
31.0%
5
9.2%
20
15

Adj. Sack Rate
9.1%
28
5.8%
24
-4

Rush EPA
-0.062
17
-0.065
15
-2

Rush SR
35.8%
30
42.9%
23
-7

Rush DVOA
-7.9%
20
-1.1%
22
2

Adj. Line Yards
4.03
30
4.33
16
-14

Yards per Play
6
4
5.3
11
7

Points per Game
26.5
5
22.2
14
9

Panthers at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 208 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Sam Darnold

Metric
Output
Rank

ATS Value vs. Avg.
-1.7
37

Career: Sam Darnold

AY/A: 5.8
QB Elo per Game: -76.0

2022: Geno Smith

Metric
Output
Rank

EPA + CPOE
0.156
4

AY/A
8.5
4

QBR
64.8
5

ATS Value vs. Avg.
1.8
10

Career: Geno Smith

AY/A: 6.6
QB Elo per Game: -32.0

Key Takeaway: I Might Be Wrong … But I Don’t Think I Am

I’m the moron who thought I was getting in good at -6.5 only to see this line strongly move against him all the way to -3.5.

Ouch.

So maybe I’m way off on this.

When the market speaks, I’ve learned that I should pay attention.

But I’m betting (literally) that the market is wrong in this spot.

At Lumen Field, the Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the league. Yes, the Panthers are coming off the bye … but I’m skeptical that the bye actually means all that much against the spread to a non-playoff contender late in the season.

When you factor in the home-field advantage for the Seahawks and the rest advantage for the Panthers, this line is saying that the Seahawks are about 1-2 points better than the Panthers — and that’s just wrong.

Without adjusting for short-term injuries, I have the Seahawks power rated as five points better than the Panthers. Maybe I’m being optimistically aggressive with the Seahawks and pessimistically dismissive of the Panthers — but the Massey-Peabody Power Rankings have the Seahawks as 4.56 points better than the Panthers. I don’t believe that I’m out of line with reality.

Rather, the market is out of line.

Best Line: Seahawks -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Seahawks -6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Seahawks -7

Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

This is normally the place where I highlight the five spread bets that I’m leading toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

But (as of writing) something weird is going on at DraftKings. When I log in, I don’t see the normal “edit picks” button that allows me to submit picks for the week. Maybe the lines for this contest aren’t live yet? Not sure.

Anyway, I’ll provide a tweet update with my contest picks on Sunday before kickoff, and then I’ll post that tweet here.

Previous Best Bets Pieces

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