In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question — i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.
Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the Conference USA (CUSA).
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UAB Blazers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 60 out of 131
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Win odds
Alabama A&M
UAB
Thur, Sep 1
-31
1
UAB
Liberty
Sat, Sep 10
0
0.5
Georgia Southern
UAB
Sat, Sep 17
-17.5
1
UAB
Rice
Sat, Oct 1
-15.5
0.963
Middle Tennessee
UAB
Sat, Oct 8
-12
0.885
Charlotte
UAB
Sat, Oct 15
-17.5
1
UAB
WKU
Fri, Oct 21
1
0.488
UAB
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Oct 29
-9.5
0.811
UTSA
UAB
Sat, Nov 5
-7.5
0.781
North Texas
UAB
Sat, Nov 12
-12.5
0.887
UAB
LSU
Sat, Nov 19
15
0.044
UAB
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Nov 26
-9
0.807
The architect of UAB’s have-to-see-it-to-believe-it turnaround from canceled program to perennial bowl entrant – HC Bill Clark – stepped down in late June due to a medical issue. UAB turned the interim reins over to OC/assistant HC Bryant Vincent. If that change doesn’t affect the Blazers’ on-field performance, UAB will be very good in Vincent’s first year.
The defense is one of the best in the G5. Eight starters return from a unit that ranked No. 16 in total defense last year. The Blazers’ defense is so tough to deal with because it takes away your run game and forces you to become predictably one-dimensional to move the ball (UAB’s run defense ranked No. 11 last year). The offense returns three pillars – QB Dylan Hopkins, RB DeWayne McBride and WR Trea Shropshire – along with three starters on the offensive line (and a ton of experience on the two-deep). UAB has all the pieces they need to control the clock and the tempo of most games.
Thor’s projected win total: 9.2
Las Vegas win total: 8.5
Thor’s bet: OVER
UAB is likely to lose at LSU, but the rest of this schedule is extremely manageable. The next two toughest games feature projected ATL lines of UAB +1 (at WKU) and pick ‘em (at Liberty). My numbers project UAB as at least nine-point favorites in the other nine games. UAB has a real shot at double-digit regular season wins – I’m taking the over.
UTSA Roadrunners
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 80 out of 131
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Win odds
Houston
UTSA
Sat, Sep 3
9
0.193
UTSA
Army
Sat, Sep 10
3.5
0.357
UTSA
Texas
Sat, Sep 17
21.5
0
Texas Southern
UTSA
Sat, Sep 24
-24.5
1
UTSA
Middle Tennessee
Fri, Sep 30
-1
0.513
WKU
UTSA
Sat, Oct 8
0
0.5
UTSA
FIU
Fri, Oct 14
-18.5
1
North Texas
UTSA
Sat, Oct 22
-7
0.752
UTSA
UAB
Sat, Nov 5
7.5
0.219
Louisiana Tech
UTSA
Sat, Nov 12
-9
0.807
UTSA
Rice
Sat, Nov 19
-11.5
0.882
UTEP
UTSA
Sat, Nov 26
-10.5
0.86
UTSA is coming off a triumphant 12-2 season (with one of those losses coming in a game that didn’t mean anything to them pre-CUSA title game). Last year’s offense set the school record with 36.9 PPG (No. 11). Despite losing star RB Sincere McCormick, this unit should be just as good. Eight starters return – including all-CUSA honorees QB Frank Harris and WR Zakhari Franklin – and UTSA added former Arkansas RB Trelon Smith to replace McCormick.
Where this team will likely fall off is on defense. Last year’s group finished No. 58 in total defense – but with pronounced splits. The run defense was a solid No. 14, but the pass defense was an abysmal No. 105. That was with NFL Draft pick CB Tariq Woolen. Three starters must be replaced in the secondary. HC Jeff Traylor threw multiple transfer-portal darts at that position group over the offseason. Traylor needs multiple hits on those dice-rolls to trust his pass defense again.
Thor’s projected win total: 7.1
Las Vegas win total: 8.5
Thor’s bet: UNDER
I like this UTSA team fine, but this win total is inflated based on last year’s results. The OOC schedule doesn’t help. Games against Texas and Houston are probably both losses, and UTSA will be an underdog at Army. Lose those three, and you must go undefeated in conference play to go over. The problem is that ATL projects UTSA to have two pick ‘em games in CUSA play and install the Roadrunners as a 7.5-point underdog at UAB. We must go under.
UTEP Miners
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 109 out of 131
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Win odds
North Texas
UTEP
Sat, Aug 27
2
0.465
UTEP
Oklahoma
Sat, Sep 3
31
0
NMSU
UTEP
Sat, Sep 10
-13
0.893
UTEP
New Mexico
Sat, Sep 17
-10.5
0.86
Boise State
UTEP
Fri, Sep 23
13.5
0.1
UTEP
Charlotte
Sat, Oct 1
1
0.488
UTEP
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Oct 8
4
0.342
Florida Atlantic
UTEP
Sat, Oct 22
0
0.5
Middle Tennessee
UTEP
Sat, Oct 29
2.5
0.455
UTEP
Rice
Thur, Nov 3
-3
0.594
FIU
UTEP
Sat, Nov 19
-14
0.924
UTEP
UTSA
Sat, Nov 26
10.5
0.14
Last season, the Miners qualified for a bowl for only the third time in 16 years. UTEP went 0-6 against teams that finished in the top-93 in my final numbers and 7-0 against teams ranked lower. This year, UTEP is scheduled to play nine opponents I rank 91st-or-lower – and seven below No. 100. The team returns 15 starters, including QB Gavin Hardison. The passing offense ranked No. 3 in EPA/play last fall and should be good again.
The defensive front is very strong. The 4-2-5 scheme returns all six starters along the defensive line and the linebacking corps. That should ensure that the run defense (No. 43) remains solid and that the Miners continue to get after the quarterback (four defenders who recorded double-digit TFL last year return). The biggest question is in the secondary: Two nickel backs with experience return, but both outside corners and safeties must be replaced.
Thor’s projected win total: 5.8
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor’s bet: OVER
In lieu of this year’s soft schedule and the fact that UTEP handled its poor opponents last year, I’m a bit surprised the Vegas number dropped beneath “6.” That said, ATL’s adjusted win total falls very close to the Vegas number at 5.7. That’s largely because in five different games, ATL projects lines of between pick ‘em to a four-point disadvantage. Going over will require UTEP to go 2-3 or 3-2 in those games (depending on the result of the MTSU game). I’m following a personal conviction in going over.
WKU Hilltoppers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 68 out of 131
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Win odds
Austin Peay
WKU
Sat, Aug 27
-28
1
WKU
Hawaii
Sat, Sep 3
-10.5
0.86
WKU
Indiana
Sat, Sep 17
-2
0.535
FIU
WKU
Sat, Sep 24
-26
1
Troy
WKU
Sat, Oct 1
-4
0.658
WKU
UTSA
Sat, Oct 8
0
0.5
WKU
Middle Tennessee
Sat, Oct 15
-3.5
0.643
UAB
WKU
Fri, Oct 21
-1
0.513
North Texas
WKU
Sat, Oct 29
-10
0.836
WKU
Charlotte
Sat, Nov 5
-10
0.836
Rice
WKU
Sat, Nov 12
-19
1
WKU
Auburn
Sat, Nov 19
16
0.019
WKU
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Nov 26
-7.5
0.781
Football is a copy-cat sport. WKU HC Tyson Helton did something so brilliant last offseason that he’s already been copied (by Wazzu): Import the most critical elements from a dominant FCS offense and unleash them on the FBS. But now that QB Bailey Zappe, WR Jerreth Sterns and OC Zach Kittley have moved on, can the Hilltoppers field a dominant offense again with a whole new cast of characters?
Ben Arbuckle, Kittley’s former top lieutenant, is the new play-caller. His new QB is Jarrett Doege, whose winding career took him from Lubbock, Texas, to Bowling Green, to West Virginia before this one-year pitstop at WKU. The defense loses two-time CUSA DPOY EDGE DeAngelo Malone. But with six starters back, it shouldn’t fall off.
Thor’s projected win total: 9.2
Las Vegas win total: 8.5
Thor’s bet: OVER
The schedule unfolds nicely. It’s also important to note that WKU plays 13 games. It has only one sure loss, the game at Auburn. ATL projects WKU as double-digit favorites in six games and 7.5-point-or-great favorites in seven. This bet will be decided in the other four games – the ones ATL projects spreads of between pick’ em and WKU -3. If WKU can split those four games while not stubbing its toe in any of the seven they’ll be substantial favorites in, the Hilltoppers will go over the number.
North Texas Mean Green
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 97 out of 131
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Win odds
North Texas
UTEP
Sat, Aug 27
-2
0.535
SMU
North Texas
Sat, Sep 3
10.5
0.14
Texas Southern
North Texas
Sat, Sep 10
-21
1
North Texas
UNLV
Sat, Sep 17
-2
0.535
North Texas
Memphis
Sat, Sep 24
11
0.129
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Sat, Oct 1
-4.5
0.673
Louisiana Tech
North Texas
Sat, Oct 15
-4.5
0.673
North Texas
UTSA
Sat, Oct 22
7
0.248
North Texas
WKU
Sat, Oct 29
10
0.164
FIU
North Texas
Sat, Nov 5
-18.5
1
North Texas
UAB
Sat, Nov 12
12.5
0.113
Rice
North Texas
Sat, Nov 26
-11.5
0.882
HC Seth Littrell’s bizarre tenure added another riveting chapter last year. Littrell, who took over a 1-11 team, went 23-17 over his first three years. But he went 8-14 in Years four and five and then began last season 1-6. Presumably needing to win out to save his job, Littrell did just that, with the Mean Green ripping off a five-game winning streak to go bowling (a loss to Miami OH).
Littrell remains on the hot seat, but another bowl appearance should get him off it. His offense returns eight starters. The biggest loss was RB DeAndre Torrey – who helped the team finish No. 5 in rushing offense last year – to graduation. It would sure help if RB Oscar Adaway, last year’s presumed starter prior to injury, returns fully healthy from his torn ACL. The defense has more problems after losing EDGEs Gabriel and Grayson Murphy to UCLA via transfer. Only five starters return from a unit that was mediocre overall but excellent situationally last year (No. 12 rushing success rate).
Thor’s projected win total: 6.1
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor’s bet: Pass
This bet comes down to the outcome of several unknowable factors: Will new QB Grant Gunnell finally play up to his billing? Can the rushing attack remain strong without Torrey? Will last year’s bend-but-don’t-break defense be any better in the middle of the field, or will it regress on third-downs and in the red zone? This one could go either way.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 103 out of 131
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Win odds
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Aug 27
-4.5
0.673
Florida Atlantic
Ohio
Sat, Sep 3
-2.5
0.545
SE Louisiana
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Sep 10
-18
1
UCF
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Sep 17
16.5
0.002
Florida Atlantic
Purdue
Sat, Sep 24
20
0
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Sat, Oct 1
4.5
0.327
Rice
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Oct 15
-8.5
0.802
Florida Atlantic
UTEP
Sat, Oct 22
0
0.5
UAB
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Oct 29
9.5
0.189
Florida Atlantic
FIU
Sat, Nov 12
-12
0.885
Florida Atlantic
Middle Tennessee
Sat, Nov 19
5.5
0.311
WKU
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Nov 26
7.5
0.219
In his first season in 2020, FAU HC Willie Taggart led the Owls to a 5-4 record and a bowl appearance. Last year, the Owls started 5-3 and needed only one win in the last four games to go bowling. FAU lost all four games by double-digits as the offense and defense collapsed simultaneously.
The biggest issue last year offensively was the offensive line. It struggled to protect QB N’Kosi Perry and didn’t consistently open holes in the running game. But with four starters along the line back, that group should be much-improved. Seven starters return on that side of the ball, making improvement likely. Defensively, only five starters return, and FAU will need to lean on transfers to plug holes. Last year’s unit finished a solid No. 58 in scoring defense but only No. 90 in total defense, featuring a feeble pass-rush.
Thor’s projected win total: 5.5
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor’s bet: Pass
My adjusted win total falls smack-dab on the Las Vegas number. FAU projects to be a double-digit favorite in two games and double-digit underdogs in two others. Eight games have projected single-digit spreads, meaning this team has a wide range of outcomes – anywhere from 2-10 to 10-2. Since this one could go either way, we have to pass.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 94 out of 131
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Win odds
Middle Tennessee
James Madison
Sat, Sep 3
0
0.5
Middle Tennessee
Colorado State
Sat, Sep 10
0
0.5
Tennessee State
Middle Tennessee
Sat, Sep 17
-22
1
Middle Tennessee
Miami
Sat, Sep 24
26
0
UTSA
Middle Tennessee
Fri, Sep 30
1
0.488
Middle Tennessee
UAB
Sat, Oct 8
12
0.116
WKU
Middle Tennessee
Sat, Oct 15
3.5
0.357
Middle Tennessee
UTEP
Sat, Oct 29
-2.5
0.545
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Nov 5
0
0.5
Charlotte
Middle Tennessee
Sat, Nov 12
-8.5
0.802
Florida Atlantic
Middle Tennessee
Sat, Nov 19
-5.5
0.69
Middle Tennessee
FIU
Sat, Nov 26
14
0.076
After going 7-14 between 2019-2020, MTSU returned to its winning ways with a 7-6 record last fall. With new OC Mitch Stewart calling the shots this year, MTSU is transitioning from a balanced spread offense to an Air Raid attack. Stewart has a tall task in year No. 1 with only two starters returning on offense. MTSU’s offensive line, in particular, got crushed by transfer portal defections.
Better news on defense: Six starters return from a unit that led the FBS in takeaways per game and finished No. 2 in CUSA in TFL. MTSU will be very strong in the front seven. The secondary is another question, with only one starting defensive back returning. Can MTSU prevent pass defense regression?
Thor’s projected win total: 5.6
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor’s bet: Pass
My projected win total is right in line with the Las Vegas number. And this one could truly go either way, depending on if the new offensive scheme spurs improvement on a unit with minimal experience returning. Nine different games have projected single-digit spreads, including four other games – one-third of the schedule – with projected spreads under a field goal. Classic stay-away.
Charlotte 49ers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 115 out of 131
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Win odds
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Aug 27
4.5
0.327
William & Mary
Charlotte
Fri, Sep 2
-15.5
0.963
Maryland
Charlotte
Sat, Sep 10
15
0.044
Charlotte
Georgia State
Sat, Sep 17
11
0.129
Charlotte
South Carolina
Sat, Sep 24
19
0
UTEP
Charlotte
Sat, Oct 1
-1
0.513
Charlotte
UAB
Sat, Oct 15
17.5
0
FIU
Charlotte
Sat, Oct 22
-13
0.893
Charlotte
Rice
Sat, Oct 29
-1.5
0.525
WKU
Charlotte
Sat, Nov 5
10
0.164
Charlotte
Middle Tennessee
Sat, Nov 12
8.5
0.198
Louisiana Tech
Charlotte
Sat, Nov 19
1
0.488
Like conference mate FAU, Charlotte blew a golden opportunity to go bowling last year. The 49ers started 4-2 but went just 1-5 down the stretch to get boxed out of the postseason. Last year’s defense was terrible (No. 120), but the offense was FBS average (No. 65), with the No. 48 passing attack. Here’s the good news: Eight starters return on that unit, including fifth-year starter QB Chris Reynolds.
HC Will Healy imported new DC Greg Brown to fix the stinky defense. The program intends to overhaul its coverage looks but keep the up-front stuff the same. The pass defense ranked second-to-last in the nation in both EPA/pass, and the total defense finished the same in 20-plus yard gains allowed – this was a necessary change. Charlotte has six starters back on defense, but three are in the secondary, giving hope to the idea that the pass defense will be improved.
Thor’s projected win total: 4.2
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor’s bet: Pass
ATL projects Charlotte as double-digit favorites in two games but an underdog of at least 9.5 points in six others. The other four games all have projected spreads of 4.5-points or lower either way. Barring upsets, Charlotte will likely need to go 3-1 in those games to go over this number. We’re too close to the margins here to make a call one way or the other.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 104 out of 131
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Win odds
Louisiana Tech
Missouri
Thur, Sep 1
11.5
0.118
Stephen F. Austin
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Sep 10
-18.5
1
Louisiana Tech
Clemson
Sat, Sep 17
35
0
Louisiana Tech
South Alabama
Sat, Sep 24
1
0.488
UTEP
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Oct 8
-4
0.658
Louisiana Tech
North Texas
Sat, Oct 15
4.5
0.327
Rice
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Oct 22
-9.5
0.811
Louisiana Tech
FIU
Sat, Oct 29
-11.5
0.882
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Nov 5
0
0.5
Louisiana Tech
UTSA
Sat, Nov 12
9
0.193
Louisiana Tech
Charlotte
Sat, Nov 19
-1
0.513
UAB
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Nov 26
8.5
0.198
Last year’s 3-9 finish cost long-time HC Skip Holtz his job. The Bulldogs imported Sonny Cumbie to replace him. Cumbie led Texas Tech to a bowl last year after taking over as the interim HC following the midseason firing of Matt Wells. Cumbie is an Air Raid disciple. His new receiving corps is stacked, and the left side of the offensive line is experienced and stout. The questions are at QB and the right side of the line.
Cumbie had an interesting strategy to his quarterback dilemma in an offseason where seemingly half the quarterbacks in the country switched schools. Instead of going after a big name, he imported two former pupils, fifth-year seniors Matthew Downing (TCU) and Parker McNeil (Texas Tech), to battle it out. Don’t put it past one of them to throw for over 4,000 yards this year: The Air Raid requires experience and authority over reads, not necessarily a bazooka of an arm. Defensively, LTU finished No. 114 last year. But the Bulldogs returned eight starters and picked up multiple potential starters in the transfer portal, including a pair of former starters under ex-Stephen F. Austin DC Scott Power, the team’s new DC. LTU’s defense can’t help but be better this year.
Thor’s projected win total: 5.7
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor’s bet: OVER
The books are pessimistic about Cumbie’s ability to start quickly in year No. 1. My numbers are not – we believe LTU has a decent shot at bowl eligibility this fall. I know the defense is going to be significantly improved. The question becomes the offense, and specifically if the new starter – both of whom rarely saw field times at their previous P5 schools – will be able to put up big numbers in year No. 1. I trust Cumbie’s ability to amp up the offense quickly.
Rice Owls
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 123 out of 131
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Win odds
Rice
USC
Sat, Sep 3
29.5
0
McNeese
Rice
Sat, Sep 10
-12
0.885
Louisiana
Rice
Sat, Sep 17
12.5
0.113
Rice
Houston
Sat, Sep 24
27
0
UAB
Rice
Sat, Oct 1
15.5
0.037
Rice
Florida Atlantic
Sat, Oct 15
8.5
0.198
Rice
Louisiana Tech
Sat, Oct 22
9.5
0.189
Charlotte
Rice
Sat, Oct 29
1.5
0.475
UTEP
Rice
Thur, Nov 3
2.5
0.455
Rice
WKU
Sat, Nov 12
19
0
UTSA
Rice
Sat, Nov 19
11.5
0.118
Rice
North Texas
Sat, Nov 26
11.5
0.118
Rice was oh-so-close to a true breakthrough under HC Mike Bloomgren in 2021. The Owls went 4-8, but two losses came in OT. With 17 starters back, you’d figure my numbers would project another step forward for Bloomgren’s Owls. That’s not the case, partly due to a brutal non-conference schedule.
Rice’s clock-control offense (Bloomgren was David Shaw’s former OC at Stanford) returns seven starters, including five between the important OL/TE positions in this offense. The receiving corps should be improved with the return of WR Bradley Rozner (injury) and the position change of Luke McCaffrey (formerly a speedster QB). Rice has an excellent chance to improve on last year’s defense that allowed the 10th-most PPG with 10 starters returning.
Thor’s projected win total: 2.6
Las Vegas win total: 3.5
Thor’s bet: UNDER
The schedule doesn’t set up well for another season of improvement. My numbers show Rice as two-possession-or-greater underdogs in nine-of-12 games. Of the other three, Rice should beat the FCS team but is not guaranteed to hold serve at home against Charlotte or UTEP (ATL projects the Owls as very-short ‘dogs in both). I respect what Bloomgren is building here, but the road to four wins appears treacherous, possible only if Rice significantly improves from last year’s No. 123 ATL finish into the No. 100-110 range (like UTEP did last year). It’s possible, but they’ll likely take a slight step backward.
Florida International Panthers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 131 out of 131
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Win odds
Bryant
FIU
Thur, Sep 1
-5
0.681
FIU
Texas State
Fri, Sep 9
12.5
0.113
FIU
WKU
Sat, Sep 24
26
0
FIU
NMSU
Sat, Oct 1
2.5
0.455
UConn
FIU
Sat, Oct 8
1
0.488
UTSA
FIU
Fri, Oct 14
18.5
0
FIU
Charlotte
Sat, Oct 22
13
0.107
Louisiana Tech
FIU
Sat, Oct 29
11.5
0.118
FIU
North Texas
Sat, Nov 5
18.5
0
Florida Atlantic
FIU
Sat, Nov 12
12
0.116
FIU
UTEP
Sat, Nov 19
14
0.076
Middle Tennessee
FIU
Sat, Nov 26
14
0.076
The Butch Jones era ended with a thud. After beating an FCS team in the opener, FIU lost their next 11 games to FBS opponents (putting FIU on a 1-17 skid if you include the prior year). The Panthers made an interesting decision for Davis’ successor, tabbing former SJSU and Colorado HC Mike MacIntyre. MacIntyre is an underrated coach that I thought got railroaded at CU. A rebuild similar to the remarkable one he pulled off at SJSU – going from 1-12 to 10-2 in two years – will be required to get FIU back to a bowl anytime soon.
That’s not going to happen in year No. 1. Not only did this team fail to beat an FBS team last year, and finish No. 114 and 126, respectively, in scoring offense and defense. But they also overhauled their staff and returned only four starters total! MacIntyre has one of the nation’s least-talented teams and one of its least-experienced teams. MacIntyre is praying that Duke transfer QB Gunnar Holmberg can at least be competent enough to force touches to WR Tyrese Chambers, much as MacIntyre did at CU with Laviska Shenault. The defense, horrific last year, is a total mystery box with a new DC and so little experience returning.
Thor’s projected win total: 2.2
Las Vegas win total: 3
Thor’s bet: UNDER
ATL sees FIU as the worst team in the FBS and projects the Panthers as 11.5-point-or-greater underdogs in nine-of-12 games. To even push a bet on this total, FIU – barring an enormous upset – would need to go 3-0 in the other games… an FCS opponent, UConn, and New Mexico State. This gives under bettors a ton of leeway. The odds are significantly against FIU winning all three of those games and pulling off at least one upset as projected double-digit ‘dogs.
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